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ICU Scores: Mortality Prediction Model-Admission

Estimating prognosis is potentially useful as a measure of ICU performance and as a guide for the clinical care of individual patients. In this study, mortality prediction models (MPMs) for patients in an adult general medical-surgical ICU were derived from data gathered at ICU admission and after 24 and 48 h of ICU care. A predictive model was developed which incorporated a sequence of probabilities collected over time in the ICU. The results of this study suggest that using serial observations may enhance substantially the usefulness of the MPM as a vehicle for helping families anticipate the patients' likely outcome:

Refining intensive care unit outcome prediction by using changing probabilities of mortality.
Lemeshow S, Teres D, Avrunin JS, Gage RW.
Crit Care Med. 1988 May;16(5):470-7.
Division of Public Health, School of Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst.

Mortality Prediction Models-Admission (MPM 0)
Variable
Value
Variable Value
Emergency admission
CPR prior to ICU admission
Age
Cancer part of present problem
Heart rate at ICU admission
Chronic renal failure
S.B.P. (mmHg)
Probable infection
Previous ICU admission within 6 months
Surgical service at ICU admission
MPM (Logit)
Predicted Mortality Rate

Patients excluded :Coronary care, cardiac surgery, burn patients, age < 14 years

Glascow Coma Score: MPM-O

Eyes Opening

Verbal Response

Motor Response

spontaneous
to speech
to pain
absent

converses & oriented
converses & dsoriented
iappropriate
incomprehensible
absent

obeys
localizes pain
withdraws (flexion)
decorticate (flexion) rigidity
decerebrate (extension) rigidity
absent

Glasgow Coma Score=

Up to MPM 0

APACHE II SAPS II MPM-0 MPM-24 MPM-48 MPM-Over Time SOFA MODS PRISM
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